Efectividad de la intervención cambiaria en Guatemala

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Carlos Eduardo Castillo Maldonado

Resumen

La efectividad de las intervenciones cambiarias de compra y de venta de dólares del Banco de Guatemala se analiza en el contexto de un modelo ACT-GARCH. Con información diaria para el periodo 1996-2008, se concluye que solamente las intervenciones de compra produjeron una disminución de la volatilidad de largo plazo del tipo de cambio quetzal/dólar, pero que ambos tipos de intervención afectaron el quetzal. En relación con los objetivos establecidos por el banco central, la intervención cambiaria fue efectiva cuando se orientó a moderar el tipo de cambio, pero careció de efectividad cuando ésta se limitó a moderar la volatilidad cambiaria sin afectar su tendencia.
Palabras clave:
intervención cambiaria de compra, intervención cambiaria de venta, intervención efectiva, tipo de cambio, volatilidad cambiaria

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