Efectos de un impuesto al carbono de ajuste compensatorio en frontera para México
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El objetivo del artículo es analizar las consecuencias de un impuesto al carbono de ajuste compensatorio en frontera en el contexto de los riesgos de transición climática en México. La hipótesis es que tal impuesto puede tener efectos económicos, sociales, fiscales, en consumo de energía y en emisiones que implican riesgos de transición para el país. El análisis utiliza la matriz de insumo-producto para identificar efectos en cascada. La imposición del impuesto en frontera tendría consecuencias sobre la demanda de exportaciones mexicanas, con efectos colaterales en el producto, el empleo, los ingresos fiscales, el consumo de energía y las emisiones, con diferencias por sectores importantes, y representaría una fuente potencial de ingresos fiscales para los principales socios comerciales de México implica riesgos de transición climática para el país y, por lo tanto, es necesario administrarlos apropiadamente. Por ejemplo, analizar la aplicación de un precio al carbono nacional que contribuya a descarbonizar la economía, a generar recursos fiscales para apoyar la transición climática y a compensar a los grupos económicos más vulnerables. Además, este análisis ayuda a identificar las consecuencias potenciales de impuestos similares a las exportaciones mexicanas.
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