Desindustrialización, desindustrialización "prematura" y "síndrome holandés"

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José Gabriel Palma

Resumen

La frustración en América Latina con las reformas económicas neoliberales ha reabierto una serie de debates, en especial sobre desigualdad (Palma, 2019a) y productividad —en 2018, la productividad promedio de la región fue sólo 8% superior a la de 1980, esto equivale a un crecimiento promedio anual de apenas 0.2%—. Durante el ciclo anterior, de 1950 a 1980, en cambio, ésta se duplicó y más, con una tasa de crecimiento de 2.8% anual. Uno de estos debates es sobre el problema de la desindustrialización —en especial, si es “prematura” o con un componente de “síndrome holandés”—. Este trabajo analiza el rol de la manufactura en el crecimiento y la dinámica que ha seguido la desindustrialización tanto en países de ingresos altos como medios. Concluye que el éxito del Asia emergente radica, fundamentalmente, en su pragmatismo ideológico, el cual lo llevó en la década de los ochenta y principios de los noventa a usar las reformas como un mecanismo para fortalecer y acelerar sus ambiciosos procesos de industrialización —y no para llevar a cabo una “destrucción no creativa” de su manufactura, como sucedió en casi toda América Latina—. Esto a pesar de que muchos de los procesos de industrialización en el Asia emergente padecían en su momento de problemas similares (si no peores) a los de la industrialización latinoamericana.

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Palma, J. G. (2019). Desindustrialización, desindustrialización "prematura" y "síndrome holandés". El Trimestre Económico, 86(344), 901–966. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v86i344.970
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