La relación de causalidad entre el crecimiento y la IED en Argentina. ¿Pan para hoy, hambre para mañana?

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Guillermo Celso Oglietti

Resumen

Este trabajo encuentra que el acervo de inversión extranjera directa (IED) afecta negativamente el crecimiento. El resultado se fundamenta en un modelo que incorpora el efecto contractivo de la repatriación del excedente de las empresas extranjeras que a mediano plazo contribuye a desalentar la inversión y el crecimiento. El modelo capta tanto el hincapié keynesiano en el estímulo de la demanda, como el de la tradición neoclásica en la aportación financiera inicial de la IED. La hipótesis se comprobó empíricamente para la economía argentina examinando la relación de causalidad en el sentido de Granger entre el crecimiento y una variable sencilla, la proporción de la economía controlada por empresas extranjeras. Esta variable permite percibir los cambios estructurales inducidos por la IED, que trascienden el impulso financiero inicial. Se sugiere que la dificultad que enfrenta la bibliografía del tema para comprobar empíricamente una correlación significativa entre IED y crecimiento, puede deberse a que examina los flujos en lugar de concentrase en el acervo IED. Asimismo, los resultados muestran que la IED desplaza la inversión nacional, sugiriendo que éste puede ser un canal que explique el efecto negativo.

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Oglietti, G. C. (2017). La relación de causalidad entre el crecimiento y la IED en Argentina. ¿Pan para hoy, hambre para mañana?. El Trimestre Económico, 74(294), 349–378. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v74i294.368
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